US–Central Asia Relations Under Trump 2.0: Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract

This article explores relations between the US in the second Trump presidency (2025—) and Central Asia, with a focus on opportunities and challenges. Central Asia, which includes Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, is strategically located at the intersection of key world powers such as China and Russia and regions such as South Asia and the Middle East. The region has been a focus of high international political and economic interests since it gained independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Not only does it have a strategic position, but it also has vast energy resources, emerging economies, and is close to conflict zones like Afghanistan. The second Trump administration has taken interest in Central Asia, especially regarding rare earths, which today’s great powers (the US, China, and Russia) are trying to control—both sources and supply chains of critical minerals. President Trump held a C5+1 (Central Asian Republics Plus United States) summit in early November 2025 for this very purpose. The November 2025 US-Central Asia summit resulted in Uzbekistan pledging to invest around thirty-five billion in the US, Kazakhstan agreeing to cooperate with the US on rare earths, and Kazakhstan showing its willingness to join the Abraham Accords. There are many opportunities for cooperation between the US and the CAR, but there exist challenges as well. One of the key challenges is the geographical closeness and historical interaction of the other two competitors (China and Russia) with the region. Geographical proximity is both a boon (close economic and cultural ties) and a bane (a constant fear of invasion when weak states border great powers). There are two such powers in the case of Central Asia. The mercurial nature of President Trump, along with decisions such as the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, poses another challenge to a durable US engagement with the region. This work is mainly based on the available secondary sources (books, journals, periodicals, etc.). The secondary sources are supplemented with primary sources (official documents) where needed.