Tourism Resilience to Climate Change: AI-Enhanced Early Warning and Adaptive Governance

Abstract

Climate change poses increasing threats to tourism-dependent regions, affecting infrastructure, local livelihoods, and visitor safety. This paper explores how artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced early warning systems, combined with adaptive governance and community co-creation, can improve tourism resilience in the face of climate hazards. Drawing on resilience theory, adaptive governance frameworks, and risk management principles, the study develops a conceptual model linking AI data streams, governance mechanisms, and community engagement to enhance destination adaptive capacity. The literature review highlights current gaps, including fragmented integration of AI in tourism governance, lack of participatory adaptation models, and weak operationalization of predictive insights. The conceptual synthesis proposes that AI-driven forecasts of weather, mobility, demand, and environmental signals can inform policy, operational planning, and community action. Two core propositions are advanced: (P1) AI-enhanced early warning increases destination resilience, and (P2) co-governance mechanisms moderate the acceptance and effectiveness of AI interventions. Implications span policy design, destination management, and community engagement, emphasizing proactive adaptation, resource efficiency, and sustainable tourism development. This framework demonstrates that AI technologies, when embedded within inclusive governance structures, can transform climate risk management in tourism. The paper contributes to theory and practice, offering actionable insights for policymakers, DMOs, and local stakeholders while providing a foundation for empirical research on AI-enabled tourism resilience. By integrating technology, governance, and human agency, this study provides a replicable model for climate-resilient, sustainable, and community-oriented tourism.

Keywords: Tourism resilience, Climate change adaptation, Artificial intelligence, Early warning systems, Adaptive governance, Community co-creation.